Northern Eurasia 2024: Kursk Oblast incursion

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Political map of Russia & the former Soviet Union on 20 Aug 2024 (Successors of the Soviet Union: Kursk Oblast incursion), showing the following events: Sweden’s accession to NATO; Iran–Israel conflict; Pokrovsk Offensive; Kursk Oblast incursion.

Following their victory over Ukraine at Avdiivka (February 2024), the Russians began a steady advance into the western Donbas region. In response, Ukraine launched a diversionary invasion of Kursk Oblast, its first major incursion into Russian territory in the war.

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Main Events

7 Mar 2024 Sweden’s accession to NATO ▲

In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, Sweden joined Finland in applying for NATO membership that May. Although initially opposed by Hungary and Turkey over political differences, Sweden’s application was eventually ratified by all the alliance’s members and in March 2024 the country formally acceded to NATO, the last Scandinavian or Nordic country to do so. in wikipedia

1 Apr 2024–pres. Iran–Israel conflict ▲

In April 2024 Israel bombed an Iranian consulate complex in Damascus, escalating the Iran–Israel proxy conflict (Iran was funding a number of factions at war with Israel including Hamas and Hezbollah) into a series of direct confrontations. After Iran launched retaliatory missile strikes on Israel, Israel responded with strikes of its own and then, in late July, assassinated Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. This prompted further Iranian missile strikes on Israel on 1 October, which Israel responded to in kind later that same month. in wikipedia

18 Jul 2024–pres. Pokrovsk Offensive ▲

Following the fall of Avdiivka in early 2024, Russian forces steadily advanced north and northwest across western Donetsk Oblast. By mid-December they were approaching the strategic city of Pokrovsk, having apparently suffered thousands of casualties to form a significant salient in the Donbas front. Opposing them, the outnumbered Ukrainians also sustained heavy losses. in wikipedia

6 Aug 2024–pres. Kursk Oblast incursion ▲

In early August 2024 Ukrainian forces crossed the Russian border into Kursk Oblast, catching both the Russians and Ukraine’s allies by surprise. Advancing rapidly over the next few weeks, the Ukrainians captured over ninety settlements and 1,250 square kilometers of territory, before a Russian counteroffensive—reinforced by North Korean troops in November—began pushing them back. By early 2025 the Ukrainian incursion was widely seen as a failure, with Ukraine having lost over half its initial gains in the region without forcing Russia to withdraw troops from the Donbas. in wikipedia

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